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 Post subject: Rule of the Gun: With US Aid, Warlord Builds Afghan Empire
PostPosted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 8:48 pm 
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TIRIN KOT, Afghanistan ó The most powerful man in this arid stretch of southern Afghanistan is not the provincial governor, nor the police chief, nor even the commander of the Afghan Army.
It is Matiullah Khan, the head of a private army that earns millions of dollars guarding NATO supply convoys and fights Taliban insurgents alongside American Special Forces.

In little more than two years, Mr. Matiullah, an illiterate former highway patrol commander, has grown stronger than the government of Oruzgan Province, not only supplanting its role in providing security but usurping its other functions, his rivals say, like appointing public employees and doling out government largess. His fighters run missions with American Special Forces officers, and when Afghan officials have confronted him, he has either rebuffed them or had them removed.

ìOruzgan used to be the worst place in Afghanistan, and now itís the safest,î Mr. Matiullah said in an interview in his compound here, where supplicants gather each day to pay homage and seek money and help. ìWhat should we do? The officials are cowards and thieves.î

Mr. Matiullah is one of several semiofficial warlords who have emerged across Afghanistan in recent months, as American and NATO officers try to bolster ó and sometimes even supplant ó ineffective regular Afghan forces in their battle against the Taliban insurgency.

In some cases, these strongmen have restored order, though at the price of undermining the very institutions Americans are seeking to build: government structures like police forces and provincial administrations that one day are supposed to be strong enough to allow the Americans and other troops to leave.

In other places around the country, Afghan gunmen have come to the fore as the heads of private security companies or as militia commanders, independent of any government control. In these cases, the warlords not only have risen from anarchy but have helped to spread it.

For the Americans, who are racing to secure the country against a deadline set by President Obama, the emergence of such strongmen is seen as a lesser evil, despite how compromised many of them are. In Mr. Matiullahís case, American commanders appear to have set aside reports that he connives with both drug smugglers and Taliban insurgents.

ìThe institutions of the government, in security and military terms, are not yet strong enough to be able to provide security,î said Maj. Gen. Nick Carter, commander of NATO forces in southern Afghanistan. ìBut the situation is unsustainable and clearly needs to be resolved.î

Many Afghans say the Americans and their NATO partners are making a grave mistake by tolerating or encouraging warlords like Mr. Matiullah. These Afghans fear the Americans will leave behind an Afghan government too weak to do its work, and strongmen without any popular support.

ìMatiullah is an illiterate guy using the government for his own interest,î said Mohammed Essa, a tribal leader in Tirin Kot, the Oruzgan provincial capital. ìOnce the Americans leave, he wonít last. And then what will we have?î

Building a Fortune

Mr. Matiullah does not look like one of the aging, pot-bellied warlords from Afghanistanís bygone wars. Long and thin, he wears black silk turbans and extends a pinky when he gestures to make a point. Mr. Matiullahís army is an unusual hybrid, too: a booming private business and a government-subsidized militia.

His main effort ó and his biggest money maker ó is securing the chaotic highway linking Kandahar to Tirin Kot for NATO convoys. One day each week, Mr. Matiullah declares the 100-mile highway open and deploys his gunmen up and down it. The highway cuts through an area thick with Taliban insurgents.

Mr. Matiullah keeps the highway safe, and he is paid well to do it. His company charges each NATO cargo truck $1,200 for safe passage, or $800 for smaller ones, his aides say. His income, according to one of his aides, is $2.5 million a month, an astronomical sum in a country as impoverished as this one.

ìItís suicide to come up this road without Matiullahís men,î said Mohammed, a driver hauling stacks of sandbags and light fixtures to the Dutch base in Tirin Kot. The Afghan government even picks up a good chunk of Mr. Matiullahís expenses. Under an arrangement with the Ministry of the Interior, the government pays for roughly 600 of Mr. Matiullahís 1,500 fighters, including Mr. Matiullah himself, despite the fact that the force is not under the governmentís control.

ìThe government tried to shut him down, and when they couldnít, they agreed to pay for his men,î said Martine van Bijlert, a co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent organization here. NATO commanders say they reluctantly pay Mr. Matiullah (and others like him) for his services because they have no other way of moving their convoys across dangerous territory. Having their own men do it, they say, would take them away from other tasks.

American Support

But Mr. Matiullahís role has grown beyond just business. His militia has been adopted by American Special Forces officers to gather intelligence and fight insurgents. Mr. Matiullahís compound sits about 100 yards from the American Special Forces compound in Tirin Kot. A Special Forces officer, willing to speak about Mr. Matiullah only on the condition of anonymity, said his unit had an extensive relationship with Mr. Matiullah. ìMatiullah is the best there is here,î the officer said.

With his NATO millions, and the American backing, Mr. Matiullah has grown into the strongest political and economic force in the region. He estimates that his salaries support 15,000 people in this impoverished province. He has built 70 mosques with his own money, endowed scholarships in Kabul and begun holding weekly meetings with area tribal leaders. His latest venture is a rock-crushing company that sells gravel to NATO bases.

This has irritated some local leaders, who say that the line between Mr. Matiullahís business interest and the government has disappeared.

ìWhat law says that a police officer can have a private security company?î said Juma Gul Hemat, the Oruzgan police chief, whose office is a few hundred yards from Mr. Matiullahís.

ìMany times I have confronted Matiullah over his illegal business,î Chief Hemat said. ìBut as long as the Americans are behind him, there is nothing I can do. They are the ones with the money.î

Both General Carter and Hanif Atmar, the Afghan interior minister, said they hoped to disband Mr. Matiullahís militia soon ó or at least to bring it under formal government control. Mr. Matiullahís operation, the officials said, is one of at least 23 private security companies working in the area without any government license or oversight.

General Carter said that while he had no direct proof in Mr. Matiullahís case, he harbored more general worries that the legions of unregulated Afghan security companies had a financial interest in prolonging chaos. In Mr. Matiullahís case, he said, that would mean attacking people who refused to use his security service or enlisting the Taliban to do it. Local Afghans said that Mr. Matiullah had done both of those things, although they would not speak publicly for fear of retribution.

ìDoes he make deals and pay people to attack?î General Carter said. ìIím not aware of that.î

Last fall, Mr. Atmar summoned Mr. Matiullah to his office and told him he wanted to give Mr. Matiullahís army a license and a government contract. The warlord walked out.

ìI told him that itís my men who are doing the fighting and dying,î Mr. Matiullah said. ìThe guys in Kabul want to steal the money.î

Mr. Matiullah is causing other problems, Mr. Atmar said, alienating members of Afghan tribes not his own. He has also begun charging Afghans to ride on the highway.

ìParallel structures of government create problems for the rule of law,î Mr. Atmar said. Along the highway linking Kandahar and Tirin Kot, many of Mr. Matiullahís soldiers drive Afghan police trucks and wear Afghan police uniforms. Posters of Mr. Matiullah are plastered to their windshields.

ìThere is no doubt about it ó the people of Oruzgan love Matiullah!î said Fareed Ayel, one of Mr. Matiullahís officers on the route. ìThe government people are not honest.î

Like many of Mr. Matiullahís men, Mr. Ayel quit the police to join his militia, which paid him a better salary.

Indeed, many people in Tirin Kot praise Mr. Matiullah for the toughness of his fighters and for keeping the road open. Mr. Matiullah claims to have lost more than 100 men fighting the Taliban. Recently, he and several of his fighters followed an American Special Forces unit to Geezab, where the Taliban had been expelled after six years.

But doubts persist about Mr. Matiullah, especially about what he does when Afghan and American officials are somewhere else. An American intelligence report prepared for senior American commanders last spring listed a number of associates of Ahmed Wali Karzai, President Hamid Karzaiís brother and the chairman of the provincial council of Kandahar Province, who were suspected of involvement in the countryís opium trade. The report listed Mr. Matiullah as one of the suspects, but provided few details.

A former senior official in the Kandahar government, who spoke on the condition of anonymity for fear of retribution by Mr. Matiullah and the Karzais, said he believed that Mr. Matiullah was facilitating the movement of drugs along the highway to Kandahar.

ìI was never able to look inside those trucks, but if I had, I am fairly certain what I would have found,î he said.

Despite his relationship to the Special Forces, Mr. Matiullah has been suspected of playing a double game with the Taliban. Asked about Mr. Matiullah earlier this year, an American military officer in Kabul admitted that Mr. Matiullah was believed to have a relationship with insurgents. He spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was discussing intelligence matters.

Asked again recently, the same officer said that Mr. Matiullah was suspected of drug smuggling. He provided no details. The next day, after consulting intelligence officers, the officer said Mr. Matiullah was a trusted ally. ìTheir assessment about him has changed,î he said.

Mr. Matiullah denied any contact with either insurgents or drug smugglers. ìNever,î he said.

Like many Afghan leaders close to the Americans, Mr. Matiullah got his start after the fall of the Taliban in 2001, when the Americans were in desperate need of allies. Within a few years, Mr. Matiullah was the head of the Highway Police in Oruzgan Province.

In 2006, out of concern that legions of officers were working with drug traffickers, the entire agency was abolished.

ìThe highway police was one huge drug smuggling operation,î said a former Western diplomat, who was based here at the time of President Karzaiís order.

Mr. Matiullahís army is part of a constellation of militias and security companies, many of them unregistered and unregulated, that claim at least some loyalty to Ahmed Wali Karzai, who is widely acknowledged to be the most powerful man in southern Afghanistan. ìAhmed Wali is my friend, my close friend!î Mr. Matiullah said earlier this year, offering to put him on the telephone for this reporter.

In a second, more recent, interview, Mr. Matiullah said he and Mr. Karzai had no relationship at all.

Both Ahmed Wali Karzai and Mr. Matiullah are associates of Jan Mohammed Khan, a former governor of Oruzgan Province and Mr. Matiullahís father-in-law. Mr. Khan was removed from Oruzgan Province at the insistence of the Dutch in 2006 because of concerns that he was close to the drug trade. He is now an adviser to President Karzai.

Those relationships, Mr. Matiullahís detractors say, allow him to flourish.

ìMatiullah is not part of the government, he is stronger than the government, and he can do anything he wants,î said Mr. Essa, the tribal elder in Tirin Kot. ìHe is like the younger brother of Ahmed Wali. He is protected in Kabul.î

At a recent meeting inside the American Special Forces compound here, Mr. Matiullah was approached by an elderly Afghan beggar who hobbled up and then stood at attention and saluted in military fashion. Without hesitating ó indeed, without even looking ó Mr. Matiullah pulled a wad of money out of his pocket and pressed it into the manís withered hands.

ìLong live Matiullah, you are the best,î the old man said.

ìO.K., O.K.,î Mr. Matiullah said. ìNow I am busy.î


Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/world ... gewanted=1

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:49 am 
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Good article. I have heard the name before. The Dutch don't like doing business with this guy. We have spent four painful years trying to develop good relations with ALL the tribes in Oruzgan. That means that none of the tribes feel they are being disadvantaged by the coalition or the local government who work closely under our tutelage. Bruised feelings like that are easily exploited by the Taliban. Ousting Jan Mohammed Khan and working through all tribes instead of just his, has been a big reason for why the situation in Oruzgan is so favourable compared to the rest of the south.

I believe Matiullah is Popolzai, like Karzai. I can understand that the Americans work with him. It is easy, because he is enthusiastic and he is reasonably effective (more effective than the ANA and ANP in the province, who have improved enormously but still have a long way to go). But building this guy up in the way the Americans are doing is making the other tribes uneasy. Its going to upset the balance that we have so painfully created and no good can come of it.

If this is the way that the Americans are going to handle things, then I have little hope for a favourable outcome of the war. It means that they haven't learned anything in all those years of fighting. It makes me even madder at my own government for pulling out of Afghanistan.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 2:08 pm 
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Thanks for posting, Rutger, I'm really glad you did.

I'm on the fence with Matiullah (and those like him). On one hand, he is bad for "Afghanistan" and on the other, why are we trying to force Afghanistan onto the region?

As you say, the central government has dropped the ball, either through incompetence or corruption. I understand the issues surrounded Jan Mohammed Khan (and Matiullah is his son in law!) but I'm just not sure what the alternative is.

I understand the idea of working with all the tribes, but is that practical? I have absolutely no operational or academic experience of the province or the tribal makeup. I just don't know. What do you do when one tribe is clearly the superior of the other? How can you treat them as equals? To my mind, you risk spurning the stronger for the sake of the weaker.

I definitely welcome your input, Rutger and am appreciative of your perspective.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 7:18 pm 
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Good points.

There was an article on Foreign Policy recently about how everybody comparing Afghanistan with the Middle Ages is correct; the country actually functioned when it was run like a feudal society before the wars.

So on the one hand, yes, supporting local warlords can provide the reasonable stability that the national government can't right now.

On the other, it is clear that supporting him into a local warlordship is disrupting the tribal balance. Over the last four years, the Dutch and Australians have worked tirelessly to work with all the tribes. Of course some are more powerful than others, so they get more attention. However, you have to do your best to avoid those tribes to exercise their power too excessively. You apply conflict mediation. Try to get them to resolve their disputes. Talk to each other with the governor as mediator, that sort of stuff. You hold shura's where everyone is invited.

I don't know a lot of details, but some sort of balance has been created these past years where every tribe gets his say. None are left out and none feel too grieved.

You mentioned spurning the stronger to support the weaker. But what the Americans are actually doing is the opposite. They are upsetting the balance in which Matiullah was a weaker player and making him artificially strong.

It offers short term advantages in direct action against the Taliban, but Matiullah is antagonizing the other tribes against him with his criminal behaviour. In a shura they held, the other tribal leaders said they would leave the province if the Dutch leave and Matiullah becomes even more dominant. Guess where they're gonna go? In the long term, supporting warlords like Matiullah only creates more enemies and opportunities for the Taliban.

I guess this works if you're trying hard to get out of the country by 2011, but its not a recipe for long term stability.

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PostPosted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 7:48 pm 
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I'm having a discussion about this subject on another forum and I said this in answer to someone lamenting the lack of a manual on tribal politics:

Quote:
It's a difficult task, but the key obstacle is the assumption that "Afghanistan" must remain a single country. It's like walking into an experiment and saying "Well, I'm willing to change my methods, instrumentation, and subject matter so long as I always arrive at the same conclusion". I think that, on the whole, there needs to be some serious discussion as to the sustainability of the Afghan nation. Tribal politics is very tough to track because they can be so mutable that they change daily, or so established that they never change for generations. Over there, one of the problems we face is one group saying another group is "Taliban" and using that designation to get support from us in causing some hurt to their familial enemies. We do well in some areas and poorly in others and there is such a wide variety of conflict in the country that having a single monolithic structure handling it all, like ISAF, with a single monolithic mission and strategy meant to fit all sizes is, in my opinion, an unrealistic and unwinnable goal. It's like Sysiphus, or something.

There are different types of people in the special operations community. Some guys are just doers, some guys are thinkers, and most are a mixture of the two. Amongst the thinkers, the method of supporting the strongest tribes with the closest aligning values as our own seems to be the favored strategy. Yes, it is dangerous and yes, that would mean one ISAF force supports a tribe that comes into conflict with another ISAF supported tribe. I guess my point is that there is no single right answer, no single strategy, no one tactic, and no teleprompter-delivered speech that can win this. In my opinion, anyways, for whatever that is worth. I do not intend to convey the feeling that this is unwinnable, merely that we need to be smart about our objectives and really think about what we are trying to achieve.



Thanks again, Rutger, you are bringing the exact sort of perspective I have been looking for on this subject. Also, you're reminding me that Matiullah was the weaker party and that we (Americans) are keeping him afloat. Is there a structure/coalition/confederation of other tribes that could replace him? What happens when the money dries up? I know that his 1500-2000 fighters will leave him, but where will they go? I'll be honest and say that I am no friend of Karzai's government and, I guess I just find it very difficult to imagine an Afghanistan where a government in Kabul can rule the whole region. I'm not ignorant to the region's history and I know that it has been done in the past, but I question the practicality of it today.


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I guess this works if you're trying hard to get out of the country by 2011, but its not a recipe for long term stability.


Sad to say you are right. With this deadline in mind, it is very hard to justify any expenditure of effort, men, and material and this deadline is a tremendous and tragic obstacle. But, when you're trying to be everyone's friend...

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 6:07 pm 
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I agree with you that you need local solutions for local problems in a local context. I think that is has never been suggested there should be a "one size fits all" plan or solution (though it would be nice if there would actually be a single war plan that is being shared and worked on by all agencies, countries, both local and national. McChrystal has still not accomplished this in my mind. The State Department and the SOF/CIA communities are still going in to completely different directions I believe).

I also think it is wrong to assume that there can be a strong Western style government, controlling Afghan life from the capital.

However, I do think that it is possible and desirable to keep Afghanistan intact. All we have to accomplish is a strong connection between the provinces and the centre. The centre of gravity should lie with the provinces though, not with the centre. A feudal system is not such a bad model for this.

First of all, I think we should not overemphasize the importance of the tribes. They are cleary amongst the central players, but we should be careful to reduce everything to tribal politics and view everything through a tribal lense.

From Kilcullen's "Accidental Guerrilla" (highly recommended) is this tribal governance triad as it existed before the Taliban.

Image

And here it is after the Taliban.

Image

Clearly, the tribal structures have been much damaged by the wars and the Taliban period.

Furthermore, the tribes are not all encompassing. I imagine a tribe is made up by a few central families, with less and less important families around those in concentric circles. The further your family is placed from the central tribal leadership, the less control they have over you. If every Afghan adhered to his tribal elders to the same degree, there would be no Taliban.

There must be a large number of people who are not aligned with a tribe or whose ties with their tribe are weak. These you must not forget while waging counterinsurgency, because they probably form a large part of the Taliban's recruiting ground (aside from recruiting from within the tribes. A lot of tribes appearantly are involved with both the government and the Taliban. One son from a family is sent to the army and the other son to the Taliban. Whoever wins the current conflict, the family will have ties to both.)

However, it is absolutely clear that the tribes are the dominant players. They are fairly democratic, because a tribal leader cannot make decisions that are not backed by the majority of his followers. So if you want to accomplish something lasting, like build a school or a bridge or a well, it is both necessary to go through the tribal leader to ensure his support as well as desirable because if it is supported by the tribal leader then it is supported by a large part of the local populace.

So if you want to get anything done, it is almost impossible to do it without the tribes. It then becomes absolutely essential to know who's who. In the Dutch headquarters in Tirin Kot (we say Tarin Kowt) there is a huge wall chart that maps the different tribal relations. You produce maps like these:

Image

Now you realise that the Popolzai, though they have produced the country's president, are actually not the biggest nor the most powerful tribe in Uruzgan. They are well respected, but even within they're own Durrani orbit, I believe they have to bow down to the Barakzai. And even the Durrani as a whole are smaller and less powerful in Uruzgan than the Ghilzai group, which includes the Hotak and Tokhi tribes.

How do you get these tribes to get along peacefully with each other? Well for starters, I think it is very well possible to have someone from the smaller weaker tribes (or from outside the province) become governor . He may not have much power or influence, but that means that everyone can live with him. In time he can build up more influence if he is respected and he can achieve wonders if supported by powerful outsiders like the government or the Coalition. As long as he was approved by the elders of the other tribes.

If you bypass that decision making process and have someone from the weaker tribes (like Matiullah) suddenly forced upon the other tribes, then you've got problems. This can happen if he is sent in from Kabul without consultation and a local power base or if he is thrust into a position of power by the Americans. This will antagonize the other tribes and turn them away from the government and the coalition.

I think it would be better to have every tribe create a small militia with some semblance of government registration, than create a single big one under one of the smaller tribes. Or better yet, have the governor or chief of police or some other government figure create one big militia to which all the other tribes contribute a small part. In either case you have connected the tribes to the government, which is what it is all about.

Yes, it will take longer. Yes, it forces you to study the local relations hard. Yes, it will be less effective. Yes, it will be frustrating because it will seem to move so slow.

But this is just the way things work in Afghanistan and you can only accomplish something if you work with the grain of local society, not against it.

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PostPosted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 7:54 pm 
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Awesome post, Rutger, and thank you for the graphics. Kilcullen's book is on my reading list but I haven't gotten to it yet. I guess I'll have to bump it up. I think you and I are definitely on the same page and I think your idea about a workable Afghanistan is a good one and an angle that I hadn't thought of and for that, I am very appreciative.

I don't think McChrystal is the man for the job. I admit that my opinion may be clouded by some bias. I also understand that he is politically limited by what he can or can't do. I also do not think State Dept. and, hell, anyone is on the same page. When I was there (a long time ago) it seemed that every unit was running its own private war. Some units did the bare minimum of ops and others did above and beyond. Sometimes they were mutually supporting, sometimes they worked to the detriment of the other through unintended consequences (or intended, who knows?). It seemed to me that we were not an army, but a mad and drunk hydra.

How does a guy from a weaker tribe become governor? I'll admit that I'm relatively ignorant to Afghanistan's current political process. Are the governors voted in my the populace, appointed by Kabul, or elected from amongst elders, or other?

Quote:
Yes, it will take longer. Yes, it forces you to study the local relations hard. Yes, it will be less effective. Yes, it will be frustrating because it will seem to move so slow.

But this is just the way things work in Afghanistan and you can only accomplish something if you work with the grain of local society, not against it.


Totally. People want the movie version of war where the tanks shoot at buildings and planes drop bombs and it's all over in 30 minutes or less. Everybody (over here) wants to re-fight WW2. You know how much I heard about World War 2 when I was doing my initial training? Jesus, like, every single day. Or some other completely irrelevant and random connection. "Yeah, this unit is great because, back in the Revolutionary War they did ____". So, because a regiment bearing the same name and number did something important 200 years ago, it's still a "great" organization today? Everybody wants to jump into Afghanistan, or jump into Iran, or something asinine. The 101st wants a new "rendezvous with destiny" every time they go on a field ex. The 82nd is H-Minusing everything and Striking while Holding simultaneously. Ugh.

Anyways, I'm rambling.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 4:56 am 
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Clavicula_Nox wrote:
How does a guy from a weaker tribe become governor? I'll admit that I'm relatively ignorant to Afghanistan's current political process. Are the governors voted in my the populace, appointed by Kabul, or elected from amongst elders, or other?


They are appointed by Kabul. Check out the last three governors of Uruzgan:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jan_Mohammed_Khan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maulavi_Abdul_Hakim_Munib
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asadullah_Hamdam

The last two came from outside the province and had no strong ties with the local tribes. I'm confident that they were "vetted" in some way by the tribes, because those would have spoken out if they really objected to him (which they didn't to my knowledge. Not in the way they are now objecting to Matiullah). That gave them a neutral position and Asadullah in particular was pretty effective and was able to get a lot done. Sure, he used state funds and subsidies to build some projects on his own land, but not to the degree where he antagonized the province against him. He is now gone, under some lame corruption excuse, because Karzai has promised the position to someone else during his re election campaign.

I said that someone from a small tribe would probably be best, but now I'm not so sure. They could be acceptable in the beginning to the other tribes, but it would be almost impossible for that governor not to favour his own tribe. His own family would expect this and it would be very hard to back down from that sort of pressure.

So, maybe an outsider would be better. Or someone selected by the tribes themselves. If they can reach a compromise during a shurah, than that would give a member chosen from amongst them a pretty strong mandate I suppose.

Anyway, its hard to remain optimistic. The corruption, the incompetence, the pettyness of tribal politics, it all runs so deep. There are so many societal factors working against what the want to accomplish. Sometimes I wonder if the country isn't hopeless. What if it is simply impossible to avoid antagonization in tribal politics, under the current circumstances? It used to be that there would just be a loser and they would suck it up until tribal politics shifted again. But now there are external factors like the Taliban who create an "unnatural" outlet for tribal unrest. Since it seems to be impossible to remove the major external influences, perhaps stability is just impossible to achieve in the current situation?

And then there is the coalition and its dividedness. I completely agree with your analysis. Its a mess. Iraq was saved because Petraeus (and guys like Crocker with him) untangled the mess and got everyone on the same page. Afghanistan is still tangled, if you catch my drift. Maybe Afghanistan is impossible to untangle. Maybe that gung ho attitude of US soldiers just looking for the adrenaline rush of the fight, never mind the reasons, is incompatible with what Afghanistan needs. Lack of coordination is one of the biggest problems, like it always was. Back in 2006 the British pushed a group of Taliban out of Helmand along the Helmand river into Uruzgan. We could have scooped them up had we known, but the British didn't tell us what they were doing and they stopped at the border. The Taliban got away. That sort of thing still hasn't been fixed I think.

But then I think of the progress we have made in Uruzgan. If the rest of the south and east would be where Uruzgan is, the situation would look a lot more hopeful. There is a recipe for succes there. On the other hand, progress in Uruzgan is very fragile. Maybe it has more to do with factors outside of our control, like the relative absence of major destabilizers like the Haqqani network or the distance from the Quetta Shura. Still, I had hoped that McChrystal would adopt the Dutch approach and apply it to the rest of the country. That this would be the last push and if this didn't work then we'd be out. Now I think that he is not doing it right or just not succeeding. Perhaps we should seriously consider what it is we CAN accomplish with any degree of certainty, instead of what we WANT to accomplish, but can't.

Well look at me just rambling on. Sorry about that. :oops:

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Last edited by Rutger on Tue Jun 15, 2010 12:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Guys thank you very much for having this discussion here. IMO we cant afford to "lose" in Afghanistan, but winning in a military sense isnt really an option from the start. Your perspectives are enlightening to say the least.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:06 pm 
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This, I think, is relevant to the thread and I didn't want to create a new one:

Quote:
Defence Minister John Faulkner says the finishing touches are being applied to new arrangements for leadership in Oruzgan province and for a force to replace the outgoing Dutch taskgroup once it leaves the Afghanistan region.

Senator Faulkner, just back from attending the NATO minister's meeting in Brussels, said an announcement was imminent.

He said the new arrangements would involve no backward step.


Oruzgan plan being finalised: govt
June 15, 2010 - 7:39PM

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Defence Minister John Faulkner says the finishing touches are being applied to new arrangements for leadership in Oruzgan province and for a force to replace the outgoing Dutch taskgroup once it leaves the Afghanistan region.

Senator Faulkner, just back from attending the NATO minister's meeting in Brussels, said an announcement was imminent.

He said the new arrangements would involve no backward step.
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"We are putting the finishing touches on that outcome now and I hope in very short order you will see an announcement made in a co-ordinated fashion with ISAF (International Security Assistance Force), NATO and our other coalition partners about the new arrangements," he told reporters.

"I believe those new arrangements will be very well received in the international community and here at home in Australia."

Australia now has some 1550 troops in Afghanistan, most in Oruzgan province where they have operated under overall control of the Dutch taskgroup since 2006.

The Netherlands is set to start withdrawing its 1800-strong taskgroup. Australia has declined to take the leadership role in Oruzgan.

The US is set to take a far greater role in Oruzgan but it's unclear whether it will provide a comparable force and all the key support units the Dutch are now withdrawing.

Senator Faulkner said the issue of leadership in Oruzgan wasn't just a matter for Australia but also involved ISAF and others with troops in Oruzgan.

He said the new arrangements would produce very strong civilian and military integration in the province.

"This has taken a lot of time and a lot of effort. We have worked very closely with our partners in ISAF and in NATO to get an outcome."


Source: http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-na ... -yd31.html


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Anyway, its hard to remain optimistic. The corruption, the incompetence, the pettyness of tribal politics, it all runs so deep. There are so many societal factors working against what the want to accomplish. Sometimes I wonder if the country isn't hopeless. What if it is simply impossible to avoid antagonization in tribal politics, under the current circumstances? It used to be that there would just be a loser and they would suck it up until tribal politics shifted again. But now there are external factors like the Taliban who create an "unnatural" outlet for tribal unrest. Since it seems to be impossible to remove the major external influences, perhaps stability is just impossible to achieve in the current situation?


That's the way I feel sometimes, too. Like, I want the big win, you know? But I wonder if it just isn't there for us.At this stage, after 9 or so years of this I feel as if we (political side) have lost so much credibility in the region and I honestly do not see any realistic and earnest attempts to get it back. Simply declaring a "reset" does not infact create one. I think McChrystal was a step in the right direction but, trthfully, I think the man is given too much credit as a Maj.Gen and as a Lt.Gen for the stuff that the guys under his command accomplished, things that were often accomplished contrary to JSOC policies and not always with full approval. I don't know. Maybe it's a case of an innovative and dynamic leader hemmed in by a hostile administration, but I doubt that is the case.

Tactically, we have made many mistakes. Mistakes happen, but the huge media presence guarantees everything is blown wildly out of proportion. How can we win when the cameras are constantly broadcasting our defeat? If I could choose just one thing for us to do better, it would be the propaganda war.

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Lack of coordination is one of the biggest problems, like it always was. Back in 2006 the British pushed a group of Taliban out of Helmand along the Helmand river into Uruzgan. We could have scooped them up had we known, but the British didn't tell us what they were doing and they stopped at the border. The Taliban got away. That sort of thing still hasn't been fixed I think.


Totally. We had the same sort of problems with other units that were supposed to be attached to us. A certain organization that I do not want to name, but thinks it has been the greatest thing to hit the art of warfare since its start in Vietnam, had a real problem with working for us. Despite being under us, they would report over and around, not show up, show up late, do no pre-planning, pre-plan everything, or whatever. And what was the problem? Humility. They didn't want to be working for us and considered some kind of affront to their honor, or something, when their organization wasn't even meant for the theatre and, in my opinion, as a whole, that organization has not performed to the expectations placed upon them. But they won't leave. Everyone wants their piece and USSOCOM can't send the same people all the time.

If I keep like this, I'll start rambling about how I think conventional Big Army should get the hell out of Afghanistan, too and then I'd get in real trouble!

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 3:41 pm 
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Clavicula_Nox wrote:
If I keep like this, I'll start rambling about how I think conventional Big Army should get the hell out of Afghanistan, too and then I'd get in real trouble!

Well you'd be making a good point regardless. I am reminded of a conversation from the movie Go Tell the Spartans:

"You see, I told you. They don't want us in Muc Hoa."

"To be fair, sir, they don't want us anywhere."

Also, a little shameless self-promotion.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:11 pm 
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Clavicula_Nox wrote:
This, I think, is relevant to the thread and I didn't want to create a new one:


Well, that sounds hopeful.

Quote:
At this stage, after 9 or so years of this I feel as if we (political side) have lost so much credibility in the region and I honestly do not see any realistic and earnest attempts to get it back.


As a side note, I feel that the length of the war is not really an argument. I think that the dynamic and scale of the war changed to such a degree during 2006-2007 that it could be seen almost as a new conflict. What happened before did much to shape the battlefield of 2006, but it was a whole different ball park. Obama's escalation is similar but not nearly as dramatic. In my view at least.

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Totally. We had the same sort of problems with other units that were supposed to be attached to us.

.....

Everyone wants their piece and USSOCOM can't send the same people all the time.


Let me guess, US Navy SEALs? In that case I totally agree with you. Completely wrong mindset if you ask me.

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If I keep like this, I'll start rambling about how I think conventional Big Army should get the hell out of Afghanistan, too and then I'd get in real trouble!:roll:


And implicitly you mean that it should be up to the SOF community? I disagree with you. From what I've read and seen I think that many regular army units and commanders have come a lot further in their counterinsurgency mindset than most SOF units. The fact that SOF usually only go in and out very quickly and are not based in or near the population means they do not see the mess they create with their gung ho, enemy centric direct approach. A commander of an infantry unit has very different things to worry about and, if he is smart, will realise that he is dependent on the population for security and interact with them accordingly.

Its different for Army SF I hope, but in Uruzgan for instance, they are based at Anaconda and Cobra FOB's which are deep in Indian country, far away from the four main valleys where the population is concentrated. There's not much COIN work to be done, just staying alive is hard enough.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:31 pm 
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thatguy96 wrote:
"You see, I told you. They don't want us in Muc Hoa."

"To be fair, sir, they don't want us anywhere."


I've always wanted to see that movie. I'll put some effort into it now.

Quote:
Also, a little shameless self-promotion.


A very good article. I agree with you on most issues, with the following exception.

You say that the idea of a unitary Afghan state is irrelevant to most Afghans, but isn't it also true that the opinions of most of those Afghans are irrelevant?

The majority might not understand or support said idea, but the fact that they are not connected to the state works both ways. The state does not really have to care about them either.

Instead, don't the tribal leaders constitute an intermediary between the population and the state?

Here's a quick drawing of what I mean:

Image

So, yes, we have to change the way we think about Afghanistan, but if I'm right it also means we can allow ourselves to become a lot less ambitious to achieve a desirable outcome.

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To children ardent for some desperate glory,
The old lie; dulce et decorum est
pro patria mori.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:37 pm 
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Well that's the point. Really, so long as we don't have to pretend that the Taliban are the legitimate government and we can either get the central authority to go out and take our interests to multinational terrorists every so often (or allow us to do it on the cheap), we'd be good to go. In the mean time you can co-op the locals and bug out. It seems that a lot of the groups agree only with the Taliban that it would be great if we weren't there. When we leave, they go back to fighting amongst each other.

All of these other nation building things are good to pursue, but will take hundreds of years to fully achieve. Its much more in the realm of NGOs and multinational regional and international organizations at that point. It is not the provenance of militaries in my opinion.


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PostPosted: Tue Jun 15, 2010 6:44 pm 
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Well, that sounds hopeful.


I thought so too. From the article, it seemed that there were some oblique references to Matiullah and his buddies, particularly where they said "ISAF and others with troops in the area...". You know, I care a lot about these people. I put maximum effort and invested myself emotionally on that deployment and I really do want the best for everyone in Afghanistan. Sometimes, though, I wonder if we're capable of giving it to them.

Quote:
As a side note, I feel that the length of the war is not really an argument. I think that the dynamic and scale of the war changed to such a degree during 2006-2007 that it could be seen almost as a new conflict. What happened before did much to shape the battlefield of 2006, but it was a whole different ball park. Obama's escalation is similar but not nearly as dramatic. In my view at least.


True, but that's from our perspective, I think. How does it look when you have one corrupt governor and then replace him with another corrupt governor? There may be other things going on and working well, but people still see another corrupt governor. I think that if the new strategy was somehow more energetic, on and off the field, then maybe I would be more optimistic.

Quote:
Let me guess, US Navy SEALs? In that case I totally agree with you. Completely wrong mindset if you ask me.


Lol! I can neither confirm nor deny!

Quote:
And implicitly you mean that it should be up to the SOF community? I disagree with you. From what I've read and seen I think that many regular army units and commanders have come a lot further in their counterinsurgency mindset than most SOF units.


It's a strong statement, but based on an, as of now, outdated mindset. I mean, it's been, gosh, about 4 years since I left and I've been out of the Army for 2 years now, and I think everything was different then. If Big Army has gotten better with COIN then strike what I said from the record. It disappoints me that the majority of SOF doesn't remain in theatre long enough, but that's how it is. 6 months on, 3 months off. If it were my choice, I'd stay longer, but no one asked me...

Once my detachment was able to break away from JSOC's iron grip, we lived in our AO and it is disappointing to hear that so much of our SOF are not attaching themselves to the population areas. I know that it varies depending on who is controllingthe distribution of assets, but the smarter A-team commanders usually try to get as embedded as they possibly can. Other units, such as Rangers which are kinda half-conventional and half-SOF really can't, but that's not their mission anyway.

Quote:
A commander of an infantry unit has very different things to worry about and, if he is smart, will realise that he is dependent on the population for security and interact with them accordingly.


Well, one thing about it, at this point alot of the guys who are just filling slots are getting out of the army and the guys who are motivated and want to do the job are stepping up, so, I think that may be a result of that shift. Honestly, it's good for me to hear that Big Army is doing better than I gave them credit for. I fall into a trap where I think that they aren't capable of doing the job, and it's good to be reminded that isn't the case at all.

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Its different for Army SF I hope, but in Uruzgan for instance, they are based at Anaconda and Cobra FOB's which are deep in Indian country, far away from the four main valleys where the population is concentrated.


See, it would make sense to post a Ranger company + support assets in Indian country and SF in the population areas. One thing about this war is that the SOF units are being mismanaged everywhere. I don't know what's going on, but someone, somewhere, is saying "Delta=SEALs=Rangers=DEVGRU=Force Recon=82nd Airborne" and just giving them all the same type of missions or, as in your example, putting SF out in the field when that isn't their mission. Strange, very strange.

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